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Fisher Storms on the Horizon Part 8 of 18 |
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 05 November 2008 )
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| on November 05, 2008 12:49 PM |
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In keeping with the tradition of rosy scenarios, official budget projections suggest this deficit will be relatively short-lived. They Fully Automated Forex System almost always do. According to the official calculus, following a second $400-billion-plus deficit in 2009, the red ink should fall to $160 billion in 2010 and $95 billion in 2011, and then the budget swings to a $48 billion surplus in 2012.
If you do the math, however, you might be forgiven for sensing that these felicitous projections look a tad dodgy. To reach the projected 2012 surplus, outlays are assumed to rise at a 2.4 percent nominal annual rate over the next four yearsless than half as fast as they rose the previous seven years. Revenue is assumed to rise at a 6.7 percent nominal annual rate over the next four yearsalmost double the rate of the past seven years. Using spending and revenue growth rates that have actually prevailed in recent years, the 2012 surplus quickly evaporates and becomes a deficit, potentially of several hundred billion dollars.
Doing deficit math is always a Trading Master Plan sobering exercise. It becomes an outright painful one when you apply your calculator to the long-run fiscal challenge
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The Egocentricity of the Present Part 2 of 22 |
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 04 November 2008 )
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| on November 04, 2008 03:35 PM |
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Several weeks later, on a Sunday night, Emma was peacefully lying in her bed. Suddenly a flash of intense light hovered above her bed. Ruth appeared as an angel. Emma, she said, I have good news and I have bad news.
Oh, Ruthie, Emma said, tell me the good news.
The good news, Emma, is that there Ten Pips a Day is a softball team in heaven! All of our friends from girlhood are here and so are our old teammates. We are all carefree girls again. We play all day in perfect weather. We never get tired. And we are happy, happy, happy and will be for eternity. It is truly heavenly.
Oh, Ruth, that is so wonderful, Emma replied. What better news could I have received on this fine Sunday night? What could possibly be the bad news?
Well, said Ruth, the bad news is you are pitching on Tuesday.
So often, just when all seems so good and just right, we receive an abrupt warning that things are about to change, that we are going to be yanked from our comfortable existence and into the unknown. At that moment, we realize we have been enjoying a false sense of comfort.
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